Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:12 am at San Jose); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Midway, leaving 11:50, is the safest bet: 57% chance of reaching Dallas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 24% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SJC 11:50 → MDW 17:55WN 4357	3h 21m Chicago	MDW 21:16 → DAL 23:40WN 2893	9h 50m	100%	57%
Southwest Details →	SJC 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3668	2h 05m Denver	DEN 20:25 → DAL 23:30WN 1523	6h 35m	87%	42%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809	51m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	7h 45m	54%	27%
Southwest Details →	SJC 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3668	50m Denver	DEN 19:10 → DAL 22:09WN 1578	5h 14m	27%	13%
Southwest Details →	SJC 15:40 → SAN 17:05WN 3701	51m San Diego	SAN 17:56 → DAL 22:58WN 3560	5h 18m	24%	11%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON