Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:45 pm at San Jose)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31% (calm day: 19%). Best bet: Delta via LAX, leaving 18:12, 73% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 18:12 → LAX 19:34DL 1438	3h 25m Los Angeles	LAX 22:59 → FLL 07:05 +1DL 477	9h 53m	100%	73%
United Details →	SJC 18:37 → DEN 22:16UA 1035	1h 43m Denver	DEN 23:59 → FLL 05:50 +1UA 519	8h 13m	86%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SJC 20:25 → LAX 22:00DL 3883 · flown by SkyWest	59m Los Angeles	LAX 22:59 → FLL 07:05 +1DL 477	7h 40m	70%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON