Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:27 pm at San Jose); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 55% (calm day: 32%). Best bet: Southwest via LAX, leaving 19:35, 46% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SJC 19:35 → LAX 21:00WN 3680	2h 40m Los Angeles	LAX 23:40 → HOU 05:00 +1WN 2402	7h 25m	95%	46%
Southwest Details →	SJC 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3668	3h 36m Denver	DEN 21:56 → HOU 01:24 +1WN 3433	8h 29m	97%	43%
Southwest Details →	SJC 15:35 → PHX 17:30WN 3266	2h 51m Phoenix	PHX 20:21 → HOU 01:00 +1WN 4436	7h 25m	100%	42%
Southwest Details →	SJC 15:40 → SAN 17:05WN 3701	3h 01m San Diego	SAN 20:06 → HOU 01:17 +1WN 3413	7h 37m	97%	21%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SJC 17:30 → SAN 18:55WN 3702	1h 00m San Diego	SAN 19:55 → HOU 01:15 +1WN 4675	5h 45m	21%	4%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON