Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:39 pm at San Jose)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47% (calm day: 29%). Best bet: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 18:45, 43% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SJC 18:45 → SEA 21:00AS 481	1h 43m Seattle	SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 +1AS 367	8h 54m	71%	43%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON