Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2965 at 11:33, 20%.

Safest bet today DL 2965 SJC 11:33 → LAX 12:55 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 4082 SJC 20:23 → LAX 21:48 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Weather 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2965 Delta Flight history →	SJC 11:33	LAX 12:55	20%	4%	0.4%	92%worse than usual
DL 1380 Delta	SJC 11:41	LAX 13:02	22%	5%	0.3%	no record
WN 2950 Southwest	SJC 11:35	LAX 12:55	24%	6%	0.2%	no record
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 20:25	LAX 22:00	26%	7%	0.2%	92%worse than usual
DL 1438 Delta Flight history →	SJC 18:12	LAX 19:34	26%	8%	0.2%	93%worse than usual
WN 3844 Southwest	SJC 12:42	LAX 14:04	29%	6%	0.2%	no record
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 14:59	LAX 16:24	30%	7%	0.2%	92%worse than usual
DL 1359 Delta	SJC 18:18	LAX 19:40	31%	8%	0.3%	no record
OO 3849 SkyWest	SJC 16:21	LAX 17:47	31%	7%	0.2%	no record
DL 3822 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 16:30	LAX 17:56	33%	6%	0.2%	93%worse than usual
WN 1884 Southwest	SJC 22:19	LAX 23:42	33%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 3787 Southwest	SJC 14:26	LAX 15:48	37%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 3580 Southwest	SJC 20:54	LAX 22:16	42%	13%	0.2%	no record
F9 2458 Frontier Flight history →	SJC 20:55	LAX 22:25	42%	16%	2.2%	83%worse than usual
WN 1585 Southwest	SJC 21:40	LAX 23:05	43%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 3837 Southwest	SJC 17:56	LAX 19:18	44%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 2952 Southwest	SJC 16:05	LAX 17:25	46%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 3680 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 19:35	LAX 21:00	46%	12%	0.2%	38%
F9 4082 Frontier Flight history →	SJC 20:23	LAX 21:48	48%	17%	2.7%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON