Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:05 pm at San Jose); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Phoenix, leaving 19:23, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SJC 19:23 → PHX 21:18AA 2576	2h 24m Phoenix	PHX 23:42 → ORD 05:06 +1AA 2059	7h 43m	88%	63%
Alaska Details →	SJC 18:45 → SEA 21:00AS 481	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 23:41 → ORD 05:41 +1AS 285	8h 56m	97%	62%
Frontier Details →	SJC 20:23 → LAX 21:48F9 4082	2h 11m Los Angeles	LAX 23:59 → ORD 06:17 +1F9 2446	7h 54m	94%	40%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SJC 20:44 → SEA 22:50AS 745	51m Seattle	SEA 23:41 → ORD 05:41 +1AS 285	6h 57m	47%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON