Today: WN 3500 at 08:18 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–40%.

Safest bet today WN 3500 SJC 08:18 → PHX 10:18 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2279 SJC 18:30 → PHX 20:30 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3500 Southwest	SJC 08:18	PHX 10:18	12%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 2154 Southwest	SJC 09:05	PHX 11:00	13%	3%	0.2%	no record
AA 3940 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SJC 12:46	PHX 14:46	15%	4%	0.2%	97%worse than usual
WN 3834 Southwest	SJC 10:51	PHX 12:50	19%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 3325 American Flight history →	SJC 12:39	PHX 14:35	22%	7%	0.2%	79%
WN 486 Southwest	SJC 22:20	PHX 00:20	26%	7%	0.5%	no record
AA 2094 American Flight history →	SJC 19:14	PHX 21:19	28%	11%	0.2%	60%
WN 3520 Southwest	SJC 15:45	PHX 17:44	29%	7%	0.1%	no record
AA 2576 American Flight history →	SJC 19:23	PHX 21:18	31%	10%	0.2%	69%
WN 3266 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 15:35	PHX 17:30	31%	7%	0.1%	48%
WN 439 Southwest	SJC 21:10	PHX 23:09	33%	10%	0.5%	no record
WN 3201 Southwest	SJC 19:30	PHX 21:25	36%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 3346 Southwest	SJC 17:15	PHX 19:14	39%	8%	0.1%	no record
WN 2279 Southwest	SJC 18:30	PHX 20:30	40%	11%	0.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON