Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 55%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3714 at 20:35, 51%.

Safest bet today WN 3714 SJC 20:35 → SNA 22:00 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest WN 3852 SJC 20:37 → SNA 21:35 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Weather 55% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3714 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 20:35	SNA 22:00	51%	14%	0.5%	82%worse than usual
WN 3667 Southwest	SJC 21:05	SNA 22:36	51%	18%	0.5%	no record
WN 447 Southwest	SJC 19:40	SNA 21:05	58%	19%	0.6%	no record
WN 3852 Southwest	SJC 20:37	SNA 21:35	60%	17%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON