Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:42 pm at Salt Lake City); 8 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: DL 912 at 23:35, 40%.

Nonstops today


DL 912 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:35	ATL 05:14	40%	10%	0.5%	88%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 20:35 → LAX 21:29DL 1142	2h 30m Los Angeles	LAX 23:59 → ATL 07:33 +1DL 320	8h 58m	95%	52%
Delta Details →	SLC 20:59 → SFO 21:59DL 2762	2h 00m San Francisco	SFO 23:59 → ATL 07:40 +1DL 690	8h 41m	87%	50%
Frontier Details →	SLC 20:18 → LAS 21:00F9 1507	2h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 23:50 → ATL 06:59 +1F9 2428	8h 41m	83%	39%
Delta Details →	SLC 20:50 → BOI 22:04DL 4446 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Boise	BOI 23:12 → ATL 05:35 +1DL 704	6h 45m	82%	39%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SLC 20:35 → LAX 21:29DL 1142	1h 11m Los Angeles	LAX 22:40 → ATL 06:10 +1DL 899	7h 35m	72%	41%
Delta Details →	SLC 20:44 → SEA 22:00DL 2016	58m Seattle	SEA 22:58 → ATL 06:45 +1DL 409	8h 01m	51%	31%
Delta Details →	SLC 20:59 → SFO 21:59DL 2762	1h 00m San Francisco	SFO 22:59 → ATL 06:40 +1DL 495	7h 41m	51%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON