Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:19 pm at Salt Lake City); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: B6 248 at 23:59, 31%.

Nonstops today


B6 248 JetBlue Flight history →	SLC 23:59	BOS 06:30	31%	10%	0.5%	75%
DL 702 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:15	BOS 23:47	38%	9%	0.3%	79%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 18:55 → SFO 20:04UA 5457 · flown by SkyWest	3h 01m San Francisco	SFO 23:05 → BOS 08:01 +1UA 1665	11h 06m	94%	76%
American Details →	SLC 18:50 → PHX 19:35AA 4089 · flown by Envoy	2h 10m Phoenix	PHX 21:45 → BOS 05:45 +1AA 2701	8h 55m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252	3h 54m San Diego	SAN 22:00 → BOS 06:38 +1DL 571	11h 28m	96%	73%
Alaska Details →	SLC 19:38 → PDX 20:42AS 3308 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Portland	PDX 21:56 → BOS 06:20 +1AS 436	8h 42m	91%	71%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	2h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 20:09 → BOS 23:55DL 2614	7h 55m	95%	69%
American Details →	SLC 13:29 → ORD 17:43AA 3258	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 20:29 → BOS 00:05 +1AA 2682	8h 36m	100%	69%
Delta Details →	SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161	2h 53m Los Angeles	LAX 21:00 → BOS 05:30 +1DL 507	10h 20m	95%	69%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:40 → MCI 17:05DL 2903	2h 27m Kansas City	MCI 19:32 → BOS 23:37DL 314	7h 57m	97%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SLC 16:18 → ORD 20:40UA 2072	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 21:41 → BOS 01:14 +1UA 1779	6h 56m	63%	45%
American Details →	SLC 13:56 → MIA 20:52AA 483	53m Miami	MIA 21:45 → BOS 00:59 +1AA 1054	9h 03m	53%	34%
American Details →	SLC 14:00 → DFW 17:50AA 2613	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:42 → BOS 23:21AA 1268	7h 21m	49%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON