Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:27 pm at Salt Lake City); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 339 at 20:50, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 339 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:50	BUR 21:48	28%	7%	0.1%	84%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 1 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SLC 16:00 → SEA 17:16AS 734	2h 03m Seattle	SEA 19:19 → BUR 21:55AS 727	6h 55m	96%	49%
Southwest Details →	SLC 16:45 → DEN 18:15WN 3740	2h 16m Denver	DEN 20:31 → BUR 22:05WN 4390	6h 20m	90%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON