Today: DL 1971 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet today DL 1971 SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 3906 SLC 13:10 → BZN 14:33 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1971 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:55	BZN 11:17	14%	3%	0.2%	89%
DL 2046 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:05	BZN 00:23	20%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 3676 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 17:20	BZN 18:44	23%	7%	0.3%	87%
DL 3906 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 13:10	BZN 14:33	25%	6%	0.4%	90%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON