Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:09 pm at Salt Lake City); 14 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, F9 3278 at 18:54, with a 47% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


F9 3278 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 18:54	DFW 22:38	47%	24%	0.9%	76%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 18:55 → SFO 20:04UA 5457 · flown by SkyWest	3h 55m San Francisco	SFO 23:59 → DFW 05:45 +1UA 1722	9h 50m	97%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SLC 18:50 → PHX 19:35AA 4089 · flown by Envoy	46m Phoenix	PHX 20:21 → DFW 00:48 +1AA 2603	4h 58m	54%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON