Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:46 pm at Salt Lake City); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41% (calm day: 29%). Best bet: Delta via LAX, leaving 20:35, 63% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 20:35 → LAX 21:29DL 1142	1h 30m Los Angeles	LAX 22:59 → FLL 07:05 +1DL 477	8h 30m	86%	63%
Delta Details →	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	7h 08m	80%	34%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SLC 18:55 → SFO 20:04UA 5457 · flown by SkyWest	1h 11m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → FLL 05:59 +1UA 1230	9h 04m	70%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON