Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:10 pm at Salt Lake City); 11 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 31% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1662 at 23:15, 29%.

Safest bet today DL 1662 SLC 23:15 → LAS 23:40 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest F9 1507 SLC 20:18 → LAS 21:00 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Weather 46% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1662 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:15	LAS 23:40	29%	8%	0.2%	80%
WN 2236 Southwest	SLC 21:25	LAS 21:59	47%	11%	0.1%	no record
WN 3745 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 21:20	LAS 21:45	49%	11%	0.1%	58%
WN 3061 Southwest	SLC 18:40	LAS 19:10	51%	14%	0.2%	no record
F9 1507 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 20:18	LAS 21:00	51%	26%	0.7%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON