Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:01 pm at Salt Lake City); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: DL 2413 at 17:21 is the safest bet, 35% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 42–46%.

Safest bet today DL 2413 SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 1873 SLC 16:49 → ORD 21:02 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2413 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:21	ORD 21:29	35%	10%	0.1%	75%
UA 2072 United Flight history →	SLC 16:18	ORD 20:40	42%	11%	0.2%	66%
UA 1963 United Flight history →	SLC 16:15	ORD 20:32	43%	10%	0.2%	73%worse than usual
AA 2780 American Flight history →	SLC 16:56	ORD 21:34	43%	12%	0.2%	75%worse than usual
AA 1873 American	SLC 16:49	ORD 21:02	46%	13%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON