Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:41 pm at Salt Lake City); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1373 at 22:50, 27%.

Nonstops today


DL 1373 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:50	PDX 23:44	27%	11%	0.2%	89%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SLC 20:08 → SFO 21:10UA 2097	1h 42m San Francisco	SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 +1UA 2384	5h 42m	67%	45%
Delta Details →	SLC 20:44 → SEA 22:00DL 2016	50m Seattle	SEA 22:50 → PDX 23:54DL 4472 · flown by SkyWest	4h 10m	41%	26%
Southwest Details →	SLC 21:20 → LAS 21:45WN 3745	57m Las Vegas	LAS 22:42 → PDX 01:04 +1WN 2297	4h 44m	36%	20%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON