Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:12 pm at Salt Lake City); 16 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 37% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1496 at 22:45, 28%.

Safest bet today DL 1496 SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 142 SLC 20:30 → PHX 21:10 · 68% chance 15+ min late

Weather 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 16 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1496 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:45	PHX 23:31	28%	10%	0.2%	88%worse than usual
AA 4089 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SLC 18:50	PHX 19:35	31%	11%	0.1%	76%
AA 2907 American	SLC 19:17	PHX 20:25	40%	22%	0.2%	no record
F9 1439 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 22:18	PHX 23:12	48%	27%	0.7%	77%worse than usual
F9 4949 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 21:10	PHX 21:56	55%	30%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
WN 3326 Southwest	SLC 20:50	PHX 21:36	63%	18%	0.1%	no record
WN 142 Southwest	SLC 20:30	PHX 21:10	68%	18%	0.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON