Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:17 pm at Salt Lake City); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: DL 1091 at 22:50 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–40%.

Safest bet today DL 1091 SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest UA 2097 SLC 20:08 → SFO 21:10 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 12% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1091 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:50	SFO 23:52	23%	6%	0.2%	66%
DL 1088 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:10	SFO 16:12	25%	9%	0.1%	66%
UA 5457 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 18:55	SFO 20:04	33%	9%	0.2%	54%
UA 1225 United	SLC 16:32	SFO 17:40	33%	10%	0.2%	no record
F9 3393 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 17:02	SFO 18:23	33%	10%	0.7%	69%
DL 2762 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:59	SFO 21:59	37%	8%	0.1%	59%
UA 2097 United Flight history →	SLC 20:08	SFO 21:10	40%	9%	0.2%	12%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON