Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:24 am at Salt Lake City); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: DL 1254 at 11:50 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–39%.

Safest bet today DL 1254 SLC 11:50 → SJC 12:45 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 3084 SLC 18:25 → SJC 19:20 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1254 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:50	SJC 12:45	16%	3%	0.1%	90%
DL 1272 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:45	SJC 23:39	22%	6%	0.6%	83%
DL 3937 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 17:25	SJC 18:26	22%	6%	0.2%	77%
DL 1260 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:10	SJC 16:04	26%	7%	0.1%	90%worse than usual
WN 9003 Southwest	SLC 19:36	SJC 20:40	35%	13%	0.1%	no record
WN 3084 Southwest	SLC 18:25	SJC 19:20	39%	9%	0.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON