Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:17 pm at Sacramento); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: DL 878 at 22:00, 35%.

Nonstops today


DL 878 Delta Flight history →	SMF 22:00	ATL 05:31	35%	9%	1.0%	92%worse than usual
DL 769 Delta Flight history →	SMF 22:56	ATL 06:31	36%	10%	1.0%	95%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 20:50 → LAX 22:44DL 3759 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 23:59 → ATL 07:33 +1DL 320	7h 43m	86%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON