Sun, Oct 4 has passed, so this is the 12-month record.

Itineraries flown on 20+ days in the Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 schedule · each leg’s record Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

No clear winner: Southwest’s SMF → BNA flights land within a few points of 9 in 10 on time whatever the hour.

Nonstops (seasonal or thin)


Southwest	SMF	BNA	4h 05m	90%	0.3%	345	Flying now

Best connections, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival, layover included (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for the details.


Southwest Details →	SMF 18:45 → SAN 20:20WN 4293	2h 20m San Diego	SAN 22:40 → BNA 04:45 +1WN 3480	8h 00m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	SMF 22:00 → ATL 05:32DL 878	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:43 +1DL 3069	8h 43m	100%	90%
American Details →	SMF 19:21 → LAX 21:01AA 6346 · flown by SkyWest	2h 58m Los Angeles	LAX 23:59 → BNA 06:08 +1AA 2149	8h 47m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:11DL 1526	1h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → BNA 13:44DL 2214	6h 14m	98%	87%
United Details →	SMF 23:43 → ORD 05:54UA 1148	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → BNA 10:34 +1UA 5304 · flown by SkyWest	8h 51m	97%	85%
Southwest Details →	SMF 22:10 → MCO 06:15WN 3799	1h 20m Orlando	MCO 07:35 → BNA 08:35 +1WN 550	8h 25m	90%	84%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:40DL 2229	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → BNA 15:00DL 2843	6h 45m	96%	84%
American Details →	SMF 23:10 → ORD 05:36AA 3060	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 08:29 → BNA 10:11 +1AA 3439 · flown by Envoy	9h 02m	98%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SMF 21:40 → BWI 05:35WN 3622	50m Baltimore	BWI 06:25 → BNA 07:20 +1WN 874	7h 40m	67%	61%
Southwest Details →	SMF 20:45 → LAS 22:15WN 3788	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 23:25 → BNA 05:00 +1WN 2191	6h 15m	67%	55%
American Details →	SMF 23:45 → DFW 05:04AA 3314	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 06:00 → BNA 08:01 +1AA 3912 · flown by Envoy	6h 16m	71%	53%

Same layover, different day-part

How often the first flight arrives too late to connect (45 min minimum), for one-ticket layovers of 45–80 minutes.

Morning

SEA · 59m · leaves 06:13 1%

SLC · 1h 14m · leaves 05:30 2%

MSP · 1h 15m · leaves 06:15 4%

Afternoon and evening

LAS · 1h 10m · leaves 20:45 33%

DFW · 1h 02m · leaves 14:55 34%

DEN · 50m · leaves 16:00 43%

Delays build through the day, so an afternoon first leg eats the layover. A short connection is fine early in the morning and a gamble later on.

Mixing airlines

One ticketMiss it and the airline rebooks you; bags go through. 45 min is enough.

Separate ticketsMiss it and you buy a new ticket. Re-check bags, clear security again: we require 90 min.


United UA 5628 SMF 18:47 → LAX American AA 2149 LAX 23:59 → BNA Connection details →	3h 20m	9h 21m	100%	90%
Alaska AS 3036 SMF 17:37 → SAN Southwest WN 3480 SAN 22:40 → BNA Connection details →	3h 19m	9h 08m	98%	89%
American AA 3060 SMF 23:10 → ORD United UA 5304 ORD 08:40 → BNA Connection details →	3h 04m	9h 24m	98%	87%

Rank all connections, any airlines →

Regional partners count as the airline that sells them: SkyWest flying Delta Connection is one Delta ticket.

How these are worked out. Makes the connection: share of the last year’s flights where the first flight arrived with at least 45 minutes to spare (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled and arriving within 15 minutes. Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.

About this data: US DOT on-time records, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. Schedules (which flights and connections exist, and their times) are as of Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026; seasonal flights outside that window aren’t ranked. Rebuilt monthly. JSON