Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:41 pm at Sacramento)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48% (calm day: 35%). Best bet: American via Phoenix, leaving 19:41, 46% on time.

Nonstops today


AA 2464 American Flight history →	SMF 22:03	CLT 06:08	36%	10%	0.8%	88%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SMF 19:41 → PHX 21:10AA 1799	2h 25m Phoenix	PHX 23:35 → CLT 06:35 +1AA 849	7h 54m	87%	63%
American Details →	SMF 19:21 → LAX 21:01AA 6346 · flown by SkyWest	1h 34m Los Angeles	LAX 22:35 → CLT 06:19 +1AA 3035	7h 58m	88%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SMF 19:41 → PHX 21:10AA 1799	1h 38m Phoenix	PHX 22:48 → CLT 05:43 +1AA 1330	7h 02m	71%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON