Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:46 pm at Sacramento); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 39–42% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3772 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 15:15	DAL 20:40	39%	9%	0.4%	51%
WN 2876 Southwest	SMF 18:15	DAL 23:37	42%	11%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SMF 14:15 → DEN 17:35WN 4105	2h 50m Denver	DEN 20:25 → DAL 23:30WN 1523	7h 15m	98%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SMF 14:15 → DEN 17:35WN 4105	50m Denver	DEN 18:25 → DAL 21:35WN 1521	5h 20m	46%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON