Today: AA 3314 at 23:45 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 48–49%.

Safest bet today AA 3314 SMF 23:45 → DFW 05:04 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AA 2634 SMF 14:55 → DFW 20:28 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 48% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3314 American Flight history →	SMF 23:45	DFW 05:04	26%	9%	1.1%	74%
AA 2078 American Flight history →	SMF 14:25	DFW 19:58	48%	11%	1.5%	73%worse than usual
AA 2634 American Flight history →	SMF 14:55	DFW 20:28	49%	12%	1.9%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON