Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:29 pm at Sacramento); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46% (calm day: 33%). Best bet: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 16:55, 47% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SMF 16:55 → LAS 18:25WN 4116	2h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 20:50 → HOU 01:55 +1WN 2244	7h 00m	97%	47%
Southwest Details →	SMF 15:15 → DAL 20:40WN 3772	2h 06m Dallas	DAL 22:46 → HOU 00:06 +1WN 65	6h 51m	91%	40%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SMF 18:05 → LAS 19:35WN 3786	46m Las Vegas	LAS 20:21 → HOU 01:23 +1WN 3986	5h 18m	51%	23%
Southwest Details →	SMF 17:25 → SAN 18:55WN 4774	1h 00m San Diego	SAN 19:55 → HOU 01:15 +1WN 4675	5h 50m	21%	4%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON