Sun, Oct 4 has passed, so this is the 12-month record.

Itineraries flown on 20+ days in the Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 schedule · each leg’s record Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

No clear winner: Delta’s SMF → MSP flights land within a few points of 93% on time whatever the hour.

Nonstops (seasonal or thin)


Delta	SMF	MSP	3h 28m	93%	0.7%	591	Flying now

Best connections, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival, layover included (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for the details.


Southwest Details →	SMF 23:50 → MDW 05:45WN 3802	1h 55m Chicago	MDW 07:40 → MSP 09:10 +1WN 1243	7h 20m	98%	94%
Delta Details →	SMF 22:00 → ATL 05:32DL 878	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00 +1DL 2668	9h 00m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:11DL 1526	2h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:44DL 2924	7h 14m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:51DL 413	8h 51m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	SMF 19:41 → SEA 22:05DL 4043 · flown by SkyWest	1h 54m Seattle	SEA 23:59 → MSP 05:17 +1DL 953	7h 36m	96%	87%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 18m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	5h 40m	99%	86%
American Details →	SMF 23:10 → ORD 05:36AA 3060	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 08:22 → MSP 10:06 +1AA 4162 · flown by Envoy	8h 58m	98%	86%
Alaska Details →	SMF 06:13 → SEA 08:16AS 1409	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 11:51 → MSP 17:19AS 509	9h 06m	100%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SMF 15:05 → ORD 21:35AA 2627	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic	7h 17m	67%	41%
United Details →	SMF 14:17 → ORD 20:33UA 2766	55m Chicago	ORD 21:28 → MSP 23:10UA 1131	6h 53m	50%	29%
American Details →	SMF 14:55 → DFW 20:28AA 2634	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149	7h 02m	66%	28%

Same layover, different day-part

How often the first flight arrives too late to connect (45 min minimum), for one-ticket layovers of 45–80 minutes.

Morning

DEN · 1h 18m · leaves 05:00 1%

DFW · 1h 08m · leaves 05:18 7%

ORD · 1h 06m · leaves 23:43 11%

Afternoon and evening

SLC · 1h 09m · leaves 13:30 9%

ORD · 1h 01m · leaves 15:05 33%

DFW · 1h 02m · leaves 14:55 34%

Delays build through the day, so an afternoon first leg eats the layover. A short connection is fine early in the morning and a gamble later on.

Mixing airlines

One ticketMiss it and the airline rebooks you; bags go through. 45 min is enough.

Separate ticketsMiss it and you buy a new ticket. Re-check bags, clear security again: we require 90 min.


Southwest WN 949 SMF 10:12 → PDX Delta DL 1661 PDX 15:00 → MSP Connection details →	3h 18m	8h 15m	100%	94%
Alaska AS 1680 SMF 07:23 → SAN Delta DL 2121 SAN 11:53 → MSP Connection details →	2h 48m	8h 17m	100%	93%
Southwest WN 3784 SMF 05:25 → LAS Delta DL 2261 LAS 09:32 → MSP Connection details →	2h 42m	7h 15m	96%	93%

Rank all connections, any airlines →

Regional partners count as the airline that sells them: SkyWest flying Delta Connection is one Delta ticket.

How these are worked out. Makes the connection: share of the last year’s flights where the first flight arrived with at least 45 minutes to spare (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled and arriving within 15 minutes. Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.

About this data: US DOT on-time records, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. Schedules (which flights and connections exist, and their times) are as of Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026; seasonal flights outside that window aren’t ranked. Rebuilt monthly. JSON