Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:43 pm at Santa Ana); 16 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 62%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2649 at 19:50, 61%.

Nonstops today


WN 2649 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 19:50	DEN 23:10	61%	9%	0.2%	62%worse than usual
WN 424 Southwest	SNA 19:45	DEN 23:08	64%	9%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SNA 19:32 → PHX 20:57AA 2685	48m Phoenix	PHX 21:45 → DEN 00:37 +1AA 3255	4h 05m	25%	10%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON