Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 59%, against 47% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2668 at 18:39, 58%.

Safest bet today AA 2668 SNA 18:39 → DFW 23:46 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 2688 SNA 16:34 → DFW 21:49 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Weather 59% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 47% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2668 American Flight history →	SNA 18:39	DFW 23:46	58%	22%	1.4%	77%worse than usual
AA 2659 American Flight history →	SNA 16:31	DFW 21:40	58%	27%	1.9%	80%worse than usual
AA 3223 American Flight history →	SNA 18:47	DFW 23:59	60%	23%	1.4%	83%worse than usual
AA 2465 American Flight history →	SNA 14:39	DFW 19:57	60%	27%	1.8%	79%worse than usual
AA 2688 American Flight history →	SNA 16:34	DFW 21:49	60%	24%	2.0%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON