tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:08 pm at Santa Ana)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35% (calm day: 22%). Best bet: United via SFO, leaving 16:12, 80% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 16:12 → SFO 17:50UA 5351 · flown by SkyWest 3h 52m San Francisco SFO 21:42 → IAD 06:03 +1UA 705 10h 51m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → SNA 18:20 → SFO 19:51UA 2657 3h 29m San Francisco SFO 23:20 → IAD 07:48 +1UA 2111 10h 28m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → SNA 19:27 → SFO 21:05UA 5339 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m San Francisco SFO 23:05 → IAD 07:30 +1UA 1083 9h 03m 84% 64%
UnitedDetails → SNA 13:08 → DEN 16:30UA 2132 2h 43m Denver DEN 19:13 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 1412 8h 37m 92% 64%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:50 → MSP 18:33DL 2061 1h 17m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 7h 30m 78% 58%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 17:28 → SEA 20:14AS 774 2h 29m Seattle SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 +1AS 367 10h 11m 94% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SNA 18:46 → SEA 21:34AS 454 1h 09m Seattle SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 +1AS 367 8h 53m 51% 31%
DeltaDetails → SNA 13:44 → SLC 16:40DL 1159 50m Salt Lake City SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847 6h 45m 34% 26%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:29 → EWR 20:56UA 1559 54m Newark EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784 7h 50m 37% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON