Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 54%, against 41% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1352 at 14:10, 50%.

Safest bet today UA 1352 SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest AA 3151 SNA 15:08 → ORD 21:14 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Weather 54% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 41% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1352 United Flight history →	SNA 14:10	ORD 20:26	50%	8%	0.2%	68%worse than usual
AA 2640 American Flight history →	SNA 15:10	ORD 21:49	55%	15%	0.3%	67%worse than usual
AA 3151 American	SNA 15:08	ORD 21:14	58%	17%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON