Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56%, against 42% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3857 at 21:10, 37%.

Safest bet today WN 3857 SNA 21:10 → PHX 22:35 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 2287 SNA 14:14 → PHX 15:02 · 69% chance 15+ min late

Weather 56% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 42% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3857 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 21:10	PHX 22:35	37%	10%	0.4%	80%worse than usual
AA 2655 American Flight history →	SNA 12:35	PHX 14:00	44%	11%	0.3%	66%
AA 2454 American Flight history →	SNA 12:33	PHX 14:01	45%	11%	0.3%	72%worse than usual
WN 4006 Southwest	SNA 20:26	PHX 21:50	53%	10%	0.4%	no record
AA 3171 American Flight history →	SNA 13:24	PHX 14:50	55%	12%	0.3%	73%worse than usual
AA 1933 American	SNA 13:50	PHX 15:14	55%	17%	0.4%	no record
AA 2283 American	SNA 13:22	PHX 14:49	56%	14%	0.4%	no record
WN 3696 Southwest	SNA 15:19	PHX 16:43	58%	14%	0.3%	no record
WN 397 Southwest	SNA 15:10	PHX 16:30	58%	14%	0.3%	no record
WN 4041 Southwest	SNA 19:38	PHX 21:03	58%	14%	0.4%	no record
AA 2471 American Flight history →	SNA 19:31	PHX 20:58	60%	20%	0.5%	65%worse than usual
AA 2685 American Flight history →	SNA 19:32	PHX 20:57	60%	20%	0.5%	71%worse than usual
WN 3671 Southwest	SNA 18:45	PHX 20:05	61%	14%	0.3%	no record
WN 4004 Southwest	SNA 17:13	PHX 18:38	63%	14%	0.3%	no record
WN 4514 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 17:15	PHX 18:35	63%	15%	0.3%	52%worse than usual
AA 2463 American Flight history →	SNA 16:26	PHX 17:54	64%	20%	0.4%	77%worse than usual
WN 2287 Southwest	SNA 14:14	PHX 15:02	69%	14%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON