Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: DL 3185 at 17:36, 26%.

Safest bet today DL 3185 STL 17:36 → MSP 19:15 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest WN 4880 STL 21:45 → MSP 23:20 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Weather 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3185 Delta Flight history →	STL 17:36	MSP 19:15	26%	9%	0.1%	72%
DL 1224 Delta	STL 17:43	MSP 19:26	27%	9%	0.1%	no record
OO 3811 SkyWest	STL 15:49	MSP 17:34	39%	20%	0.4%	no record
DL 4167 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STL 15:57	MSP 17:37	39%	14%	0.2%	64%
WN 910 Southwest	STL 21:50	MSP 23:31	50%	13%	0.2%	no record
WN 4880 Southwest Flight history →	STL 21:45	MSP 23:20	54%	15%	0.1%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON