Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:05 pm at St Louis); 22 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: AA 4144 at 19:55, 35%.

Nonstops today


AA 4144 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STL 19:55	ORD 21:32	35%	6%	0.5%	59%
UA 4165 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 19:05	ORD 20:39	30%	12%	5.7%	70%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	STL 19:56 → SEA 22:24AS 647	1h 17m Seattle	SEA 23:41 → ORD 05:41 +1AS 285	9h 45m	83%	53%
American Details →	STL 18:13 → CLT 21:11AA 2731	1h 28m Charlotte	CLT 22:39 → ORD 00:01 +1AA 3014	5h 48m	84%	53%
United Details →	STL 18:30 → IAH 20:50UA 6284 · flown by Mesa	1h 18m Houston	IAH 22:08 → ORD 00:45 +1UA 1752	6h 15m	79%	49%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 19:23 → SFO 21:43UA 2482	55m San Francisco	SFO 22:38 → ORD 05:01 +1UA 2278	9h 38m	67%	47%
Delta Details →	STL 18:58 → ATL 21:44DL 1393	56m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	4h 55m	62%	26%
American Details →	STL 19:22 → DFW 21:20AA 2491	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:12 → ORD 00:50 +1AA 1193	5h 28m	35%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON