Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:56 pm at Santa Rosa); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AS 3371 at 18:40, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 3371 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 18:40	PDX 20:28	19%	7%	0.6%	90%
AS 2331 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	STS 19:03	PDX 20:36	49%	21%	2.1%	51%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	STS 16:55 → SNA 18:37AS 3231 · flown by SkyWest	2h 22m Santa Ana	SNA 20:59 → PDX 23:29AS 573	6h 34m	100%	83%
Alaska Details →	STS 19:23 → SEA 21:30AS 3044 · flown by SkyWest	1h 56m Seattle	SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon	4h 59m	91%	74%
Alaska Details →	STS 17:35 → LAX 19:15AS 3466 · flown by SkyWest	2h 20m Los Angeles	LAX 21:35 → PDX 23:56AS 207	6h 21m	89%	72%
Alaska Details →	STS 17:56 → SAN 19:35AS 2257 · flown by Horizon	1h 41m San Diego	SAN 21:16 → PDX 23:51AS 794	5h 55m	77%	44%
American Details →	STS 16:12 → PHX 18:23AA 6459 · flown by SkyWest	2h 02m Phoenix	PHX 20:25 → PDX 23:08AA 561	6h 56m	89%	42%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	STS 19:23 → SEA 21:30AS 3044 · flown by SkyWest	59m Seattle	SEA 22:29 → PDX 23:30AS 1457	4h 07m	56%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON