Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2801 at 19:42, 48%.

Safest bet today UA 2801 TPA 19:42 → ORD 21:53 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest AA 1101 TPA 19:26 → ORD 21:41 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Weather 50% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2801 United Flight history →	TPA 19:42	ORD 21:53	48%	16%	0.2%	64%worse than usual
UA 2777 United	TPA 19:30	ORD 21:32	49%	18%	0.2%	no record
AA 1101 American Flight history →	TPA 19:26	ORD 21:41	54%	20%	0.4%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON