Today: AA 3830 at 20:20 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–48%.

Safest bet today AA 3830 TUL 20:20 → DFW 21:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest AA 2851 TUL 16:13 → DFW 17:33 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 49% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3830 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 20:20	DFW 21:45	25%	4%	2.2%	70%
AA 3715 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 20:17	DFW 21:37	28%	4%	1.6%	53%
AA 4133 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 18:33	DFW 19:58	36%	7%	2.2%	75%worse than usual
AA 2830 American	TUL 18:23	DFW 19:41	46%	17%	1.8%	no record
AA 2851 American Flight history →	TUL 16:13	DFW 17:33	48%	19%	1.7%	70%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON