Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:28 pm at Tulsa); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4420 at 20:45, 45%.

Nonstops today


WN 4420 Southwest	TUL 20:45	LAS 21:41	45%	10%	0.4%	no record
WN 294 Southwest	TUL 20:35	LAS 21:25	46%	10%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	TUL 20:41 → DFW 21:26AA 3715 · flown by Envoy	1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:44 → LAS 23:44AA 624	5h 03m	76%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON