Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:32 pm at Tucson); 7 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 37–38% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 1939 American	TUS 14:07	DFW 18:27	37%	15%	2.4%	no record
AA 584 American Flight history →	TUS 15:57	DFW 20:29	38%	14%	2.2%	64%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Tucson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	TUS 14:59 → PHX 16:01AA 6373 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Phoenix	PHX 19:31 → DFW 23:58AA 521	6h 59m	100%	62%
American Details →	TUS 16:55 → PHX 18:04AA 6207 · flown by SkyWest	2h 17m Phoenix	PHX 20:21 → DFW 00:48 +1AA 2603	5h 53m	93%	60%
American Details →	TUS 18:45 → LAX 20:27AA 6372 · flown by SkyWest	3h 21m Los Angeles	LAX 23:48 → DFW 05:01 +1AA 3136	8h 16m	96%	58%
Delta Details →	TUS 13:49 → ATL 20:45DL 937	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	8h 24m	95%	39%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TUS 17:20 → PHX 18:23AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Phoenix	PHX 19:31 → DFW 23:58AA 521	4h 38m	73%	45%
American Details →	TUS 16:55 → PHX 18:04AA 6207 · flown by SkyWest	56m Phoenix	PHX 19:00 → DFW 23:25AA 633	4h 30m	65%	39%
American Details →	TUS 18:34 → PHX 19:34AA 6208 · flown by SkyWest	47m Phoenix	PHX 20:21 → DFW 00:48 +1AA 2603	4h 14m	49%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON