Today: DL 3744 at 12:30 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet today DL 3744 TUS 12:30 → LAX 14:15 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 6372 TUS 18:45 → LAX 20:27 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3744 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 12:30	LAX 14:15	13%	6%	0.2%	98%worse than usual
OO 3904 SkyWest	TUS 12:29	LAX 14:12	15%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 6376 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 12:34	LAX 14:15	15%	7%	0.2%	83%
DL 3778 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 16:47	LAX 18:31	18%	7%	0.2%	94%worse than usual
OO 3906 SkyWest	TUS 16:43	LAX 18:26	21%	7%	0.2%	no record
OO 6292 SkyWest	TUS 18:11	LAX 19:52	23%	8%	0.2%	no record
AA 6372 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 18:45	LAX 20:27	25%	8%	0.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON