Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:35 pm at Tucson); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 69%, against 40% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3542 at 19:30, 69%.

Nonstops today


WN 3542 Southwest	TUS 19:30	SAN 20:50	69%	43%	0.9%	no record
WN 1822 Southwest	TUS 19:05	SAN 20:35	69%	43%	0.9%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TUS 18:34 → PHX 19:34AA 6208 · flown by SkyWest	46m Phoenix	PHX 20:20 → SAN 21:34AA 559	3h 00m	38%	9%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON