Today: UA 1773 at 09:42 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–36%.

Safest bet today UA 1773 IAD 09:42 → SFO 12:43 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 504 BWI 18:59 → SFO 21:50 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1773 United	IAD 09:42	SFO 12:43	11%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 367 United Flight history →	IAD 22:21	SFO 01:15	16%	6%	0.8%	84%
UA 2862 United Flight history →	IAD 14:51	SFO 17:38	18%	6%	0.2%	82%
UA 796 United Flight history →	IAD 16:12	SFO 18:57	20%	6%	0.2%	84%
UA 2075 United Flight history →	IAD 20:00	SFO 22:51	21%	7%	0.2%	52%
UA 1434 United Flight history →	IAD 12:40	SFO 15:27	24%	5%	0.2%	79%
UA 2832 United	IAD 18:48	SFO 21:43	25%	8%	0.3%	no record
UA 1757 United Flight history →	IAD 17:55	SFO 20:37	33%	8%	0.2%	60%
WN 4982 Southwest	BWI 12:55	SJC 15:30	35%	6%	0.2%	no record
AS 7 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 18:59	SFO 21:56	35%	11%	0.6%	69%
UA 368 United Flight history →	DCA 17:59	SFO 20:55	36%	11%	0.2%	55%
UA 2166 United	DCA 18:05	SFO 21:13	36%	11%	0.2%	no record
UA 504 United Flight history →	BWI 18:59	SFO 21:50	36%	10%	0.4%	56%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 20m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	7h 56m	91%	68%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	8h 12m	89%	68%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469	7h 38m	87%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON