tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:16 pm at Washington); 9 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Today: UA 2862 at 14:51 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–33%.

Safest bet today UA 2862 IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest UA 1757 IAD 17:55 → SFO 20:37 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time
Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.
UA 2862 United Flight history → IAD 14:51 SFO 17:38 16% 6% 0.4% 82%
UA 796 United Flight history → IAD 16:12 SFO 18:56 17% 6% 0.5% 84%
UA 2075 United Flight history → IAD 20:00 SFO 22:51 22% 7% 0.4% 52%
UA 367 United Flight history → IAD 22:21 SFO 01:15 22% 5% 0.4% 84%
UA 2832 United IAD 18:48 SFO 21:42 26% 7% 0.4% no record
AS 7 Alaska Flight history → DCA 18:59 SFO 21:56 26% 9% 0.5% 69%
UA 504 United Flight history → BWI 18:59 SFO 21:50 28% 9% 0.3% 56%
UA 2166 United DCA 18:05 SFO 21:12 30% 8% 0.2% no record
UA 368 United Flight history → DCA 17:59 SFO 20:55 31% 9% 0.2% 55%
UA 1757 United Flight history → IAD 17:55 SFO 20:37 33% 8% 0.4% 60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
AlaskaDetails → BWI 16:19 → PDX 18:56AS 1369 58m Portland PDX 19:54 → OAK 21:41AS 2036 · flown by Horizon 8h 22m 82% 74%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 16:10 → LAS 18:15WN 975 1h 55m Las Vegas LAS 20:10 → SJC 21:40WN 2352 8h 30m 97% 60%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 1h 25m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 8h 05m 90% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON