Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1688 ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1109 ABQ 16:36 → ATL 21:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 1688 Delta Flight history →	ABQ 07:00	ATL 12:04	7%	3%	0.2%	92%
DL 1004 Delta Flight history →	ABQ 11:20	ATL 16:30	15%	3%	0.3%	90%
DL 1109 Delta Flight history →	ABQ 16:36	ATL 21:59	16%	3%	0.3%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON