Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: WN 66 at 14:05, 33%.

Safest bet today WN 66 ABQ 14:05 → AUS 16:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time Riskiest WN 116 ABQ 15:51 → AUS 18:08 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Weather 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 66 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 14:05	AUS 16:50	33%	10%	0.2%	57%
WN 4074 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 22:30	AUS 01:20	35%	13%	0.4%	68%
WN 983 Southwest	ABQ 20:48	AUS 23:43	38%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 116 Southwest	ABQ 15:51	AUS 18:08	38%	10%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON