Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 865 Southwest	ABQ 10:30	BUR 11:42	11%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 4965 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 13:50	BUR 14:50	19%	4%	0.7%	83%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ABQ 05:20 → DEN 06:45WN 117	1h 45m Denver	DEN 08:30 → BUR 10:05WN 1557	5h 45m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	4h 59m	96%	88%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 06:40 → PHX 07:00WN 146	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 08:15 → BUR 09:40WN 3243	4h 00m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 07:30 → DEN 08:50WN 2384	2h 50m Denver	DEN 11:40 → BUR 13:15WN 2620	6h 45m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	ABQ 12:25 → SLC 14:11DL 4084 · flown by SkyWest	54m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	4h 47m	93%	83%
Alaska Details →	ABQ 11:34 → PDX 13:35AS 2269 · flown by Horizon	1h 20m Portland	PDX 14:55 → BUR 17:13AS 1386	6h 39m	96%	82%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 09:20 → LAS 09:55WN 4685	1h 21m Las Vegas	LAS 11:16 → BUR 12:32WN 2258	4h 12m	100%	82%
United Details →	ABQ 06:00 → SFO 07:36UA 538	57m San Francisco	SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363	4h 57m	93%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ABQ 18:15 → LAS 18:55WN 137	51m Las Vegas	LAS 19:46 → BUR 21:02WN 3112	3h 47m	74%	52%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 14:00 → PHX 14:20WN 148	1h 07m Phoenix	PHX 15:27 → BUR 16:56WN 1436	3h 56m	72%	52%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 13:15 → LAS 13:50WN 170	50m Las Vegas	LAS 14:40 → BUR 15:50WN 4540	3h 35m	55%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON