Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2559 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2559 ABQ 05:50 → DAL 08:35 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 2637 ABQ 18:20 → DAL 21:13 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2559 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 05:50	DAL 08:35	2%	1%	0.4%	88%
WN 1497 Southwest	ABQ 05:11	DAL 08:04	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 113 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 10:00	DAL 12:57	9%	2%	0.6%	44%
WN 1338 Southwest	ABQ 11:55	DAL 14:48	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 106 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 13:05	DAL 15:50	16%	3%	0.6%	78%
WN 114 Southwest	ABQ 15:55	DAL 18:52	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 107 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 16:20	DAL 19:10	22%	4%	0.6%	61%
WN 2637 Southwest	ABQ 18:20	DAL 21:13	22%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON