Today: WN 117 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet today WN 117 ABQ 05:20 → DEN 06:45 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 882 ABQ 18:40 → DEN 20:05 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 117 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 05:20	DEN 06:45	2%	1%	0.1%	92%
UA 5988 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 05:30	DEN 07:00	5%	2%	0.2%	96%
WN 2384 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 07:30	DEN 08:50	7%	1%	0.2%	94%
WN 4419 Southwest	ABQ 08:55	DEN 10:23	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
UA 621 United Flight history →	ABQ 07:00	DEN 08:23	11%	3%	0.2%	91%
UA 1228 United	ABQ 10:44	DEN 12:23	11%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 1741 United Flight history →	ABQ 13:33	DEN 15:03	11%	4%	0.7%	85%
WN 121 Southwest	ABQ 10:45	DEN 12:09	12%	2%	0.2%	no record
UA 5834 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 10:45	DEN 12:28	15%	4%	0.2%	92%
UA 725 United Flight history →	ABQ 16:20	DEN 17:50	16%	6%	0.6%	55%
UA 4652 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 17:57	DEN 19:40	16%	6%	0.7%	80%
OO 5446 SkyWest	ABQ 18:01	DEN 19:30	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2120 Southwest	ABQ 18:35	DEN 20:03	19%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 120 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 14:40	DEN 16:05	20%	4%	0.5%	72%
WN 123 Southwest	ABQ 16:00	DEN 17:24	22%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 882 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 18:40	DEN 20:05	22%	5%	0.5%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON