Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3448 at 05:23 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3448 ABQ 05:23 → DFW 08:18 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 9 ABQ 16:08 → DFW 19:08 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3448 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 05:23	DFW 08:18	11%	5%	0.8%	91%
AA 1231 American Flight history →	ABQ 05:43	DFW 08:36	11%	7%	1.0%	88%
AA 99 American Flight history →	ABQ 07:04	DFW 10:00	14%	8%	0.9%	90%
AA 999 American Flight history →	ABQ 08:21	DFW 11:14	17%	9%	1.0%	84%
AA 3535 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 10:26	DFW 13:20	17%	4%	0.7%	73%
AA 3371 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 12:13	DFW 15:07	17%	5%	0.7%	78%
AA 3374 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 13:24	DFW 16:19	19%	4%	0.7%	80%
AA 3381 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 17:28	DFW 20:23	20%	5%	0.7%	66%
AA 3777 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 14:32	DFW 17:27	21%	5%	0.7%	77%
AA 4269 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 17:34	DFW 20:28	21%	5%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
AA 928 American Flight history →	ABQ 10:43	DFW 13:32	23%	6%	2.7%	81%
AA 1912 American	ABQ 12:26	DFW 15:16	23%	7%	2.7%	no record
OO 4941 SkyWest	ABQ 16:22	DFW 19:17	24%	11%	0.7%	no record
AA 9 American Flight history →	ABQ 16:08	DFW 19:08	30%	9%	1.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON