Today: WN 127 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–20%.

Safest bet today WN 127 ABQ 05:45 → HOU 09:01 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time Riskiest WN 4813 ABQ 16:40 → HOU 19:52 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 127 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 05:45	HOU 09:01	4%	2%	0.3%	59%
WN 126 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 10:30	HOU 13:40	18%	4%	0.2%	74%
WN 130 Southwest	ABQ 11:15	HOU 14:28	19%	5%	0.2%	no record
WN 4813 Southwest	ABQ 16:40	HOU 19:52	20%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON