Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 251 ABQ 08:00 → IAH 11:13 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 4628 ABQ 05:16 → IAH 08:30 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 251 United Flight history →	ABQ 08:00	IAH 11:13	8%	4%	0.7%	94%
UA 298 United	ABQ 08:02	IAH 11:22	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 4628 SkyWest	ABQ 05:16	IAH 08:30	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 6151 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	ABQ 12:13	IAH 15:30	10%	3%	0.9%	90%
UA 3986 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	ABQ 14:08	IAH 17:25	17%	9%	2.3%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON